Will Pilburn run away with the title?

Two down, four races to go in the Chase. Pilburn HAD a 28 point lead over second place Lexx after Loudon. Pilburn only lost five points on the 'overall lead over 2nd place' but Burnout now claims that 2nd spot, gaining 18 of the 41 points back that Burnout lost in the Chase opener. Is Burnout's win a one time deal or will he continue to chase down Pilburn in the upcoming races?

Here are the average finishes for the final four Chase races from last year.

Last four races of the 2008 season
-Daytona: Pilburn (6th), Burnout (1st)
-Lowe's: Pilburn (2nd), Burnout (5th)......Klutch......
-Phoenix: Pilburn (1st), Burnout (2nd)
-Homestead: Pilburn (4th), Burnout (1st)

Pilburn's average finish: 3.25
Burnout's average finish: 2.25

(If we ignore bonus points and tally up the points earned from the last four races of last year as if they are the last four races of this year...)

Pilburn: 33 + 52 + 60 + 42 = 187
Burnout: 60 + 37 + 52 + 60 = 209

(...Burnout would lose the Cup by ONE point gaining 22 of his 23 points back. But since there will be bonus points, the points could shuffle...)